Autumn Budget 2025: An outlook for dealmakers

The Autumn Budget arrives later this week amid significant economic and political uncertainty and on the back of intense coverage of the implications potential policy announcements could have for savers and business owners.

There have already been a number of hot-button issues, from an alleged U-turn on an income tax increase, to potential wealth and property tax rises and the possibility of a cut to the annual tax-free cash ISA allowance.

Less prominent in the run-up to the announcement has been what the Autumn Budget might hold for dealmakers, with UK M&A still struggling to get out of a rut that now dates back nearly three years.

There are a number of ways in which dealmaking could be impacted by the upcoming Budget, ranging from causes for optimism to announcements that could act as a further dampener on M&A activity.

Here, we analyse some of the key M&A issues that could arise from the Autumn Budget, featuring analysis from Meera Shah and Poppy McMullan, M&A Advisory experts at accounting and advisory firm Buzzacott.

Will further Capital Gains Tax increases be on the table?
One of the earliest and most contentious issues surrounding the Autumn Budget was a planned income tax hike. According to many reports, Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer had spent weeks planning to institute an income tax increase that would have gone against a key manifesto promise.

Ultimately, in the face of rising disquiet among MPs and the public, the idea was seemingly abandoned. However, the fact that such a controversial policy was so close to becoming part of the Autumn Budget starkly illustrates the government’s need to raise funds, even if that means tax increases.

With an income tax increase seemingly out of the equation, it has been widely suggested that the government will explore further changes to Capital Gains Tax (CGT) and Business Asset Disposal Relief (BADR).

CGT was one of the major changes of the 2024 Autumn Budget, with the headline rates increasing from 10 per cent to 18 per cent for the lower rate, and from 20 per cent to 24 per cent for the higher rate. BADR rates, meanwhile, increased to 14 per cent from April 6 2025 and will rise again to 18 per cent from April 6 2026.

Buzzacott’s Meera Shah and Poppy McMullan suggest two possible scenarios:

1. Incremental CGT increase with BADR adjustment:
The Government could introduce a further rise in CGT - potentially by around 4 points, in line with last year’s changes - with the impact potentially offset by an increase to the £1 million BADR lifetime allowance.

2. Abolition of BADR relief:
Alternatively, BADR could be scrapped entirely, leaving CGT unchanged. However, this option is unlikely to generate sufficient revenue to meet fiscal targets, making it a less compelling choice for Rachel Reeves.

While such changes to CGT or BADR would be unwelcome for dealmakers, there is a possibility that they could drive a short-term increase in M&A activity if the changes are announced but not instituted until sometime next year.

In last year’s Budget, CGT changes were made effective immediately. While this gave dealmakers no time to react following the announcement, the fact that the increases were widely expected contributed to a surge in exit activity prior to October 2024.

Should CGT be increased again, the government may soften the blow by delaying the implementation, for example, until the start of the next financial year in April 2026. In this case, there would likely be another wave of M&A as owners seek to lock in a more favourable rate.

It is important to note that, while some business advisers may urge clients to go to market ahead of tax increases, owners should only accelerate their exit strategies in this way if they are properly exit ready. If not, the CGT savings being targeted would be considerably less than the potential value that could be added through a thorough pre-exit preparation strategy.

Find out more about the advantages of a properly planned exit strategy versus a rush to lock in favourable tax rates

Uncertainty may present advantage for bold vendors
Perhaps the biggest hurdle to an M&A recovery in 2025 so far has been persistent economic uncertainty, something that has become more prevalent over recent weeks amid speculation about the Autumn Budget.

While strong M&A appetite remains, sellers have been more reticent about coming to market, perhaps fearing that they could sell at a lower valuation now, only to see average multiples increase in the near future if the economic picture improves.

While this hesitancy among sellers is, to some extent, understandable, Buzzacott’s Meera Shah and Poppy McMullan suggest that it could offer an opportunity for sellers who are willing to be bold:

“Budget uncertainty has made some sellers cautious, but strong buyer appetite remains among private equity and PE-backed trade buyers with significant capital to deploy – meaning first movers can benefit from good valuations.”

“Going to market now may offer an edge to move quickly to an attractive offer, though sellers should be ready for a thorough due diligence process, and therefore slightly longer deal cycles to carry this offer through to completion.”

Clarity could encourage dealmaking
Even if the Autumn Budget does include unpopular measures such as tax increases or cuts to incentives, it may be that gaining the certainty that has been missing for so long encourages healthier dealmaking.

After all, appetite remains strong among many buyers, while the relatively low levels of M&A seen this year indicate that there are likely a significant number of potential vendors who have been waiting for a clearer picture of the economic landscape before proceeding.

Meera Shah and Poppy McMullan say: “As the Budget draws near, uncertainty remains but opportunity persists. For sellers, early action could secure favourable terms, while buyers continue to show strong appetite.”

“Entrepreneurs face tough choices on residency and tax planning, however the post-Budget clarity once the dust settles will help in bringing confidence back into the market. In this environment, agility and clear communication will be key to navigating change and capitalising on emerging opportunities.”

Find out more about UK M&A:
UK dealmaker confidence low amid disaffection with government

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