Lockdown exit: What does the roadmap look like for UK businesses?

After a winter spent almost entirely in lockdown, the government has this week provided a long-awaited glimpse of how and when the UK will emerge from COVID-19 restrictions. In contrast to the easing of lockdown in the late spring and summer of 2020, the process will be far slower, but the hope is that this time it will be irreversible.

The process has been laid out by Boris Johnson in a four-step plan of gradual easing, with a gap of at least five weeks between each step. A crucial part of the government’s messaging on the exit has been “data not dates”. As such, all dates in the plan are subject to change and depend on the government’s four tests being met.

These tests are: the vaccination programme continuing successfully; evidence of vaccines effectively reducing hospitalisations and deaths; infection rates not causing a surge in hospitalisations; and the risk-factor not being changed by new concerning variants.

The cautious plan, which raises the possibility of all restrictions being lifted by late June, has come as welcome news for people across the UK. More than any other group, business owners will be eager to see the back of lockdown and resume trading. However, given the gradual and changeable nature of the plan, most businesses still face a few more weeks of waiting and uncertainty.

Step 1 – March 8 and March 29

The first step is largely focused on attempting to successfully reopen schools without causing a surge in infections that could see restrictions extended. Step one of the exit roadmap, therefore, holds very little for business owners.

An easing of socialising restrictions, perhaps accompanied by warmer weather, could see more business return to, for example, cafes and off-licenses that offer takeaway.

Step 2 – April 12

This is the date that many business owners will have been eagerly awaiting, with step two set to see a major reopening of sectors of the economy. Non-essential retailers, which have been closed throughout lockdown, will be able to reopen, which should drive major business to the UK’s high street.

Hospitality businesses will also be able open outdoor settings, meaning that pub-goers can return to beer gardens in what will be a major boon for an industry ravaged by lockdown. Furthermore, hospitality curfews and the requirement to order a substantial meal with alcohol will also be lifted.

Other outdoor businesses, such as theme parks and zoos, will also be able to reopen, as will self-contained holiday accommodation, suggesting the UK tourism economy will begin to ramp-up again ahead of the summer.

Step two is by no means a total reopening, as several prohibitive rules will remain in place, including social distancing and the ban on indoor mixing of households. However, unlike in autumn, all changes will be nationwide, with no tier system in place. This means that, barring a sudden surge in infection rates or concerning new variants, business owners won’t have to live in fear of possibly having to shut down again.

In significant news for the ravaged travel industry, Boris Johnson also said that a review of restrictions on international travel could also be announced on April 12 at the earliest.

This means that businesses such as tour operators and airlines face another few months of uncertainty and the potential for the summer 2021 international season to be severely disrupted. While some international travel should be possible from the summer, the capacity at which it happens could largely be dictated by the success of vaccination programmes in other countries.

Step 3 – May 17

Step three brings more good news for the hospitality industry, with two households able to mix indoors, albeit under the rule of six. Cinemas, hotels and museums will also be able to reopen, under social distancing guidelines, enabling some of the most impacted industries to begin trading again.

Significantly, the news that weddings, receptions, funerals and wakes etc. will now be extended to 30 guests will be welcomed by businesses in the events sector, such as caterers and some fashion brands.

This sense that the UK’s events industry, so badly beleaguered for the entirety of the pandemic, is on the road to reopening is further confirmed by the possibility that May could see up to 10,000 spectators return to sporting events at large venues.

Another important point in step three is the government’s mention of “COVID-19 vaccine status certification”. This is thought to be similar to the idea of “vaccine passports”, which could enable indoor businesses to reopen more safely.

Step 4 – June 21

Finally, step four is intended to see the total reopening of the UK economy with all limits on social contact removed. This will enable events such as sports and weddings to resume in earnest and allow hospitality businesses to return to normal trading.

Most significantly, however, it will at long last lead to the reopening of the final closed sectors of the UK economy, those that have been uninterruptedly shut since March last year. So, should all go well, nightclubs and the UK’s live music industry will be able to finally reopen after well over a year.

It is understandable that many business owners will have been clinging onto the hope of a quicker reopening of the UK economy. But, following the experience of the deadly second wave that is only just beginning to abate, the government has instead opted for caution.

This means that many businesses face more difficult months, but, at the very least, the lockdown exit plan provides hope that business as usual is close to returning.


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